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The interview, when conducted with focused structured questions that correlate to job expectations, can be a very reliable predictor of future success. Unfortunately, most hiring managers don't define the expectations so the interview questions are in doubt. Secondly, the biggest mistake is that most hiring managers have never been trained how to conduct an accurate interview - so they are just winging it based on their life experiences. No wonder, the studies show that interview accuracy is basically as effective as rolling dice.

Very good research article in the MIT review.

My experience over 30 years of hiring and performance management consulting, and over 1000 executive search projects is that there is NO test that is predicative of future performance.

The intellectual tests do not predict future performance. They simply give you a perspective on raw intelligence – the ability to logically and rationally process information.

The personality assessments do not predict performance – they simply give you insight into a person’s preferred behavior/communication style in a work setting. Most of the tests are easily manipulated by the candidate into answering questions or checking words that the hiring manager wants to hear – not the real candidate.

Both of these are still useful tools and insights even with their flaws.

However, the ONLY way to predict future performance is to conduct a performance or success based structured interview that correlates with the outcomes desired in the role. Adding role plays, homework, and working/practical sessions/real case studies – along with deep and intrusive reference checking can boost interview accuracy from what most of the studies show is basically a 50/50 success rate into the 80-90 percent range.